U.S.–China Soybean Deal: Comparing Past Export Levels and Global Market Impacts

The trade deal between the United States and China, announced in November, ends the suspension of soybean imports. It includes a commitment for China to purchase 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans in the last two months of 2025 and at least 25 million metric tons annually through 2028. The agreement follows six months of near-zero U.S. soybean exports to China amid retaliatory trade measures. But how does the current deal compare to previous U.S. export levels to China? And how might this impact the global soybean market in the years to come? This article compares new purchase commitments with historical U.S. export volumes and examines…