Petroleum Economist

Gulf diplomacy has stopped looking like brinkmanship and started looking like a genuine rupture: the UAE cut all economic ties with Iran, Tehran itself admitted it is not exporting a single barrel of oil and Brent posted its second straight 5%+ weekly gain to close near a two-month high. Underneath the war headlines, the downstream system cracked open, with a diesel crack spread at $100/bl, a Russian export ban and European gas at its highest since early 2023, while US shale hit a fresh production record.