Global shipping in 2026: falling demand, elevated rates, and rising chokepoint risks

The global shipping system in mid-2026 is caught between two opposing forces: a front-loading demand surge now rapidly deflating (August US container volumes forecast to fall -4.2% YoY) and structurally elevated freight rates that refuse to follow demand lower — because the supply-side remains fractured by geopolitics, geography, and canal chokepoints. It’s a market where shippers pay more to ship less.